Hi, I'm seeing the same issues on some rhel5 boxes that have iptables enabled.
Did you ever find a solution to this?
The bandaids I've seen suggested elsewhere are to increase net.ipv4.netfilter.ip_conntrack_max.
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On fedora 18 I've hit this problem as well, my workaround (that doesn't work see additional comment below) might be helpful to some people.
I just replace the locktest (/opt/splunk/bin/locktest) with a bash script which does an 'exit 0'.
Edit: Ok, this worked for a little while and then resulted in the indexer blocking and lots of weird things happening.
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